Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3, 2025

Ukrainian efforts to cut off the Russian salient east of Dobropillya are likely generating tactical effects on Russian efforts to encircle the Ukrainian pocket near Pokrovsk. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on November 3 that Ukrainian forces are increasing pressure on the Dobropillya salient, forcing Russian forces to disperse their troops and complicating Russia’s main efforts near Pokrovsk.

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Ukraine’s counterattacks against the Dobropillya salient during ongoing Russian efforts to encircle the Pokrovsk pocket are a notable inflection compared to how Ukrainian forces reacted to previous Russian encirclement efforts. Ukrainian forces appear to be trying to counterattack on a different but supporting sector in order to pressure one flank of the Russian encirclement effort.

I know I am biased in wanting to see this but this is gradually beginning to sound less and less like an offensive. If the ocean tide is coming in and I want to slow it down, I can’t push back at another part of the water to slow it down, that is not how a rising tide behaves. This ability for Ukraine to manipulate the flow of battle suggests a different dynamic where Russia still has the numerical advantage and some degree of momentum but does not necessarily control the operational initiative.